Where the future is heading
When stated odds meet settled forecasts, results plot against this diagonal.
202820292030
Spending
Stocks
Adoption
The typical company's AI bill won't double by September 2027AI demand · 10 months left
$15.70
AI demand · 10 months left
$15.70
- Measure
- Median AI spend per employee, Ramp AI Index
- Baseline
- $15.70, September 2026
- Closes
- First published figure for September 2027
- Wrong if
- $31.40 or more
- If the source stops
- The forecast is void
AI infrastructure stocks trail the Nasdaq 100 through October 2027AI demand · 11 months left
0.0 pts
AI demand · 11 months left
0.0 pts
- Measure
- Price return of the five stocks minus the Nasdaq 100, in points
- Baseline
- October 30, 2026 closes: CoreWeave $54.87, Nebius $154.14, Oracle $130.67, Broadcom $326.08, Nvidia $204.64, Nasdaq 100 28,384.85
- Position
- Virtual $100,000 short on the five, $100,000 long the index. No real money
- Rules
- Equal dollars, never resized. Splits adjusted, dividends excluded
- Closes
- Last close on or before October 31, 2027
- Wrong if
- The five stocks match or beat the index
The rush to buy AI flattens by 2029AI demand · 3 years left
+12.1 pts
AI demand · 3 years left
+12.1 pts
- Measure
- Share of US businesses on Ramp paying for AI, Ramp AI Index
- Baseline
- 55.9%, up 12.1 points in 12 months, September 2026
- Closes
- First published figure for December 2029
- Wrong if
- The share rose 3 points or more over the prior 12 months
- If the source stops
- The forecast is void